Forex Technical Analysis

The difference between forex technical and is that forex technical analysis ignores fundamental factors and is applied only to the price action of the market. Forex technical analysis primarily consists of a variety of forex technical studies, each of which can be interpreted to predict market direction or to generate buy and sell signals. The technical analysis works by correlating the results and moves of current markets to create a short-term outlook for currencies. The rolling data that is produced throughout the trading day creates the interest in the markets and informs traders of the strong markets to back.

The Trend is Your Friend

Forex technical analysis is largely based around forex market movement trends, thus creating the widely used phrase ’the trend is your friend’ amongst traders. Buying and selling at the right time is the key in maintaining good levels of profits, following a trend is also about knowing where to entry a trade and more importantly where to exit.

Support and Resistance

Support and resistance is the basic of forex technical analysis. Support and resistance levels are points where a chart experiences recurring upward or downward pressure. A support level is usually the low point in any chart pattern (hourly, weekly or annually), whereas a resistance level is the high or the peak point of the pattern. Buying and selling at the support and resistance points makes a greater profit margin as long as they remain unbroken.

History Tends To Repeat Itself

Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends to repeat itself, mainly in terms of price movement. The repetitive nature of price movements is attributed to market psychology; in other words, market participants tend to provide a consistent reaction to similar market stimuli over time. Forex technical analysis uses chart patterns to analyze forex market movements and understand trends. Although many of these charts have been used for more than 30 years, they are still believed to be relevant because they illustrate patterns in price movements that often repeat themselves.

Shorting Stocks Strategy

Shorting Stocks Strategy

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Shorting a stock is the exact opposite of buying a stock. When you short a stock you are hedging your bets that the stock will go down in price unlike when you buy a stock and believe the price will go up. In order to short a stock you must have a margin account with your brokerage firm. In addition you also have to short individual stocks on an up tick but can short the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) on a down tick. Thus as an investor you have more of an advantage shorting the ETF’s than individual stocks.

Many investors try and short a stock way to early as they believe the stock price is way overvalued. However many times a stock that is overvalued in price may become even more overvalued especially when the stock market is in an extended upward move. The proper time to short a stock is after it has encountered its first strong downward thrust and bounced for a short period of time which sets the stage for a second move to the downside.

Lets look at an example. NTES which made a huge move in 2003 eventually peaked in October of 2003 and then made its first strong downward thrust (points A to B). Notice how NTES then found support near its 200 Day EMA (purple line) and 50% Retracement Level near the $40 level. After finding support near the $40 level NTES then rallied on below normal volume but encountered resistance at its 100 Day EMA (green line) and 38.2% Retracement Level near $48 (point C). This set the stage for a second short opportunity as NTES began to stall out near the $48 level. In this example NTES could have been shorted around the $48 level with a Stop Loss Order placed just above the $50 level just in case NTES broke to the upside instead. During the month of December NTES fell from $48 to $35 a share but did find support just above its 61.8% Retracement Level which was near $34 (point D). Thus investors could have covered their short positions at one of two prices with the first at the 200 Day EMA near $40 and the second near the 61.8% Retracement around the $34.

Thus I believe the best time to short a stock is to wait for it to bounce after it makes its first major thrust downward, after going through an extended upward move, and then try and catch the second move downward. When looking for stocks to short make sure they are exhibiting these three characteristics.

1. The stock has already undergone one significant move downward after making a top.
2. The stock then finds support at a certain Fibonacci Retracement Level or Moving Average and rallies on poor volume.
3. The stock then stalls out near its 38.2%, 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level or Moving Average after rallying.

An Analysis of Secular Bear Markets and Secular Bull Markets since 1900

From a historical perspective since 1900 there have been 3 Secular Bull Markets and 3 Secular Bear Markets as shown by the tables below of the Dow and S&P 500. As you can see during a Secular Bull Market the Average Annual Return (highlighted in red) is considerably higher than during a Secular Bear Market (highlighted in blue). Thus the long term Buy and Hold strategy that worked well in the 1980’s and 1990’s for investors may have not worked very well during the Secular Bear Markets of 1906-1921, 1929-1949 and 1966-1982.

Secular Bear Markets vs Secular Bull Markets and Dow Performance

The big question is now are we in the beginning stages of a 4th Secular Bear Mark

et which started in 2000. The average length of the previous 3 Secular Bear Markets was 18 years with a minimum of 16 years and a maximum of 21 years. Thus if you add 18 years to the year 2000 and take + or - 3 years on either side then the next Secular Bull Market may not begin until sometime in the 2015 to 2021 time period if we are now entering a 4th Secular Bear Market. However I would like to point out that even in a Secular Bear Market there can still be Bull Markets lasting a year or two as the longer term charts of the Dow show below.

Notice after the Secular Bull Market of 1922-1928 which was followed by a Secular Bear Market from 1929-1949 that the Dow still had impressive gains during the early to mid 1930s (points A to B) before going through another Bear Cycle prior too and during World War II (points B to C). This was then followed by another Bull Cycle from 1943-1946 (points C to D). However from the early part of 1937 (point B) until the end of 1949 (point E) the Dow virtually had a net gain of 0% as its basic overall pattern was a series of up and down movements which pretty much cancelled each other out.

Meanwhile after the Secular Bull Market from 1950-1965 the Dow once again went through another Secular Bear Market from 1966-1982. Notice after the Dow peaked in early 1966 (point F) that it had a lot of upward and downward movements from 1966 through 1982 but it basically went nowhere and actually was lower at the end of 1982 (point G) versus its peak in early 1966 (point F).

Looking at the current chart of the Dow shows that it has been exhibiting a choppy pattern similar to previous Secular Bear Market environments after experiencing a Secular Bull Market from 1983-1999. One has to wonder during the next 10 years or so whether the Dow will continue to exhibit a similar pattern that occurred from the mid 1960’s through the 1970’s in which it had a lot of downward and upward moves but the overall net gain was negligible.

Even if we go through another Secular Bear Market over the next several years there will still be plenty of smaller Bull Markets and if taken advantage of properly will still lead to some excellent investment opportunities in the future.

Forex trading basics

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Forex Market Basics

The Foreign Exchange market (also referred to as the Forex, FX market, "Cash" Forex or Spot Forex market ) is the largest financial market in the world, with more than $1.5 trillion changing hands every day — 30 times larger than the combined volume of all U.S. equity markets. Another major feature of the Forex market is that it operates 24 hours a day, corresponding to the opening and closing of financial centers in countries all across the world, starting each day in Sydney, then Tokyo, London and New York. At any time, in any location, there are buyers and sellers, making the Forex market the most liquid market in the world.

What to trade in Forex Market?

In the forex market, currency trading is always done in currency pairs, such as EUR/USD or GBP/USD. Accordingly, all trades result in the simultaneous buying of one currency and the selling of another. The base currency is the "basis" for the buy or the sell. It is useful to consider the currency pair as an instrument, which can be bought or sold.

Understanding Forex quote

• Base currency: The first currency in the pair.
• Counter Currency: The second currency in the pair. Also known as the terms currency.

The US dollar is the centerpiece of the Forex market and is normally considered the ’base’ currency for quotes. This includes USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. For these currencies and many others, quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the second currency quoted in the pair. For example, a quote of USD/CAD 1.1302 means that one U.S. dollar is equal to 1.1302 Canadian dollar.

BID and ASK Prices

When trading forex you will often see a two-sided quote, consisting of a ’bid’ and ’ask’. The ’bid’ is the price at which you can sell the base currency (at the same time buying the counter currency). The ’ask’ is the price at which you can buy the base currency (at the same time selling the counter currency).

Commission-free, but with spreads

Most Forex brokers offer commission-free Forex trading. Spread - The difference between the bid and ask price of a currency. Normally 3-5 pips on the Majors.

Rollover - What happens to my open positions at the end of the trading day?

Process whereby the settlement of a deal is rolled forward to another value date. The cost of this process is based on the interest rate differential of the two currencies. Most brokers will automatically roll over your open positions, allowing you to hold a position for an indefinite period of time.

Leverage & Margin

The leverage available in forex trading is one of main attractions for many traders. Leveraged trading, or trading on margin, simply means that you are not required to put up the full value of the position. Forex brokers provide more leverage than stocks or futures. In forex trading, the amount of leverage available can be up to 400 times the value of your account.

Flat Base Chart Pattern

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Stocks that have large price gains typically will stair-step upward and form Flat Bases before resuming their up trend. This action may occur several times as a stock remains in an up trend and could last from a few days to several weeks depending on the situation. Flat Bases are characterized by small daily trading ranges with volume being lower than normal. Although it doesn’t happen every time, the longer a stock remains in a Flat Base, the greater the price appreciation may be when the stock breaks out. Lets look at some examples below.

Here is a chart of EMLX. Notice how it formed a Flat Base (small trading range) from July through mid-August and then broke out of the base in on increasing volume (point A). It then formed another Flat Base in September and broke out of this base in early October and skyrocketed from $80 to $200.

Another example of a stock that had a few Flat Bases was KIDE. Notice in May and June the small daily trading ranges with low volume. Then in early July the stock broke out with increasing volume (point A) and went from $10 to $30 by mid-August. KIDE then formed another Flat Base from mid-August though early October and then exploded out of the base on higher volume (point B). The stock then went from $30 to $90 in four weeks. The total gain from July to November was 800% ($10 to $90).

Another example of a stock that was in a Flat Base pattern for a significant amount of time was MCOM. Notice that it traded sideways for at least 3 months before breaking out of the base on strong volume (point A). In this case MCOM went from $10 to $55 in 4 weeks for a gain of 450%.

As you can see, finding stocks that exhibit certain chart patterns (Cup and Handle, Double Bottom and Flat Base) can lead to strong price appreciation when they breakout on strong volume.

Regards,

Learn about Forex

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How do I begin? Please give it to me SIMPLY.

1. The best advice on how to learn to trade profitably is to learn from experts with proven track records. Many learning styles are available to beginners at all levels: books, CDs, online courses, group seminars, even one-on-one mentors who will come right your home for a few days. We outline our Forex-Trader picks in Learning Forex Trading. Learning to trade from experts is worth every penny and has saved us untold thousands in mistakes.We would not recommend starting forex trading without any training. It is not hard to learn, nor difficult to trade successfully, but you must first provide yourself with a basic functioning knowledge of ’the game you’re in’.

2. While you are learning you will need charting software to practice reading the Market. Charting is an indispensable tool that shows you in real-time data what the market is doing moment by moment and also what the market has done in the past. As you learn to analyze these charts you can determine what trades to enter and exit, where to set your stop losses, limits etc. There are several good charting software services that you can subscribe to online monthly. See our Forex-Trader tested Charting Software picks in Tools of The Trade.

3. Then, to perform your actual trades online you need a real-time ’trading platform’ to execute your ’buys’ and ’sells’ directly in the Foreign Currency Market. You obtain a trading platform from a Forex Clearinghouse that is connected real-time to the interbank market. There are many good Clearinghouses (also confusingly called Brokerage Firms, Market Makers, etc.) that provide you with the trading platform to trade the funds in the account you have opened with them. Before you begin trading your ’real’ money, while you are learning, you will practice on your own ’demo account’ with play-money in it, which will be provided to you by the clearinghouse you plan to trade through. The contractual relationship you enter into with your Clearinghouse is a very important one because the Clearinghouse you choose determines many trading features and financial advantages to you both as a trader and as an investor. Forex-Trader tested Clearinghouses are reviewed in Tools of The Trade.

We have outlined a Getting Started path with uncomplicated steps. This is the path that we would take if we were beginning trading over again today with ’what we know now’. The products and services we mention in these steps are all ones that we have personally used for some time with consistent success. As always you are free to forge your own path, and if you do, happy hiking. There is a mountain of products and services try out, and if you find ones you like better we would love to compare notes with you.

Explain More About Charting Services

To trade successfully you also must have good charting software and instantaneous data feeds critical to helping you analysis and interpret the movement of currencies moment to moment so you know when/why to buy or sell — this you subscribe to monthly. You can get a 2 week or more demo to familiarize yourself with one that has the features you like. The costs also vary, and some companies require a year commitment. There are some free charting services offered through the clearinghouses, but they tend to lack the tools to be truly useful. There are also some costly proprietary Specialty Software charting ’hybrids’ which are market forecasters tools that look more like video games than charts.

Explain More About How Clearinghouses Work

A good clearinghouse (i.e.. your computer access/link to the live Forex Exchange Market) is the partner with which you trade the money you have deposited with them in your trading account. After trying and demo-ing many we have found a small handful that are truly excellent for the beginner (and continue to be excellent as you grow) — meaning user friendly, legally accountable to regulatory bodies, and offering fair costs (spreads) for their services/trading software platforms. There still are many worrisome ones practicing in this closing era of unregulated forex trading (new Commodities laws are imminent).

The topic of matching the right clearinghouse for your needs is discussed more in Tools of the Trade, because it depends on a number of factors — how much you can open an account with, how much the clearinghouse profit spread, what your liquidity needs are, your minimum/maximum stop loss and margin requirements, even where you live and how much time you have to give to trading in a 24 hr. day.

How Much Does it Cost to Begin to Trade?

Learning to trade will entail the cost of books and whatever traiining method you choose. It will also include a reliable computer with a minimum 128 Mb of memory to run the charting software and trading platform. Ongoing ’costs of operation’ include the monthly costs of high-speed internet, charting software, the email forecasting subscriptions — plan on spending $150./mo. up for ongoing costs.

What about Pooled Clearinghouse Accounts to Trade with More Leverage?

We strongly do not recommend pooled accounts in any circumstance. Perhaps you are considering self-trading a pooled- together family account because it would give you a perceived advantage of more leveraged funds to trade (50:1 up to 100:1 leverage) — any risks of loss represent a potential risk to family relationships, and for this reason alone we do not recommend aggregating with family or friends.

However much worse are the too-numerous negative experiences of people allowing their investment funds to leave their control to become part of a ’managed’ pooled account. Not only is it a very risky investment idea, it is illegal for anyone to ’pool’ accounts without compliance with SEC (a USA Securities Exchange Commission) or international equivalent license. Never relinquish direct control over your money/trading account to anyone (i.e.. the ability to make withdrawals, deposits etc. directly by your own authority into your own account).

A good fund manager, if you do choose to go the (legitimate) Managed Account route rather than the Self-Trader route, will make certain you have your own ’segregated account’ in your own name in a bank or brokerage firm. These individual segregated accounts can still be traded together as though they were in a single account by a designated trader as long as the clearing house uses a trading platform that allows it. You, as the investor/account holder, have direct access online to your account activity at all times, and direct control over your own account in your own name (just like a bank account). The importance of this, for the safety of your funds, cannot be over emphasized.

How long are positions maintained?

As a general rule, a position is kept open until one of the following occurs: 1) realization of sufficient profits from a position; 2) the specified stop-loss is triggered; 3) another position that has a better potential appears and you need these funds.

How often are trades made?

Market conditions dictate trading activity on any given day. As a reference, the average small to medium trader might trade as often as 10 times a day. Most importantly, by not charging commission, FXA customers can take positions as often as necessary without worrying about excessive transaction costs.

What kind of trading strategy should I use?

Currency traders make decisions using both technical factors and economic fundamentals. Technical traders use charts, trend lines, support and resistance levels, and numerous patterns and mathematical analyses to identify trading opportunities, whereas fundamentalists predict price movements by interpreting a wide variety of economic information, including news, government-issued indicators and reports, and even rumor. The most dramatic price movements however, occur when unexpected events happen. The event can range from a Central Bank raising domestic interest rates to the outcome of a political election or even an act of war. Nonetheless, more often it is the expectation of an event that drives the market rather than the event itself.

How are currency prices determined?

Currency prices are affected by a variety of economic and political conditions, most importantly interest rates, inflation and political stability. Moreover, governments sometimes participate in the Forex market to influence the value of their currencies, either by flooding the market with their domestic currency in an attempt to lower the price, or conversely buying in order to raise the price. This is known as Central Bank intervention. Any of these factors, as well as large market orders, can cause high volatility in currency prices. However, the size and volume of the Forex market makes it impossible for any one entity to "drive" the market for any length of time.

What is Margin?

Margin is essentially collateral for a position. If the market moves against a customer’s position, FXA will request additional funds through a "margin call." If there are insufficient available funds, FXA will immediately close out the customer’s open positions.

Is Forex trading capital intensive?

No. FXA requires a minimum deposit of $250. FXA allows customers to execute margin trades at up to 200:1 leverage. This means that investors can execute trades of $10,000 with an initial margin requirement of $50. However, it is important to remember that while this type of leverage allows investors to maximize their profit potential, the potential for loss is equally great. A more pragmatic margin trade for someone new to the FX markets would be 20:1 but ultimately depends on the investor’s appetite for risk.

What are the most commonly traded currencies in the FX markets?

The most often traded or ’liquid’ currencies are those of countries with stable governments, respected central banks, and low inflation. Today, over 85% of all daily transactions involve trading of the major currencies, which include the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and the Australian Dollar.

When is the FX market open for trading?

A true 24-hour market, Forex trading begins each day in Sydney, and moves around the globe as the business day begins in each financial center, first to Tokyo, then London, and New York. Unlike any other financial market, investors can respond to currency fluctuations caused by economic, social and political events at the time they occur - day or night.

Who are the participants in the FX Market?

The Forex market is called an ’Interbank’ market due to the fact that historically it has been dominated by banks, including central banks, commercial banks, and investment banks. However, the percentage of other market participants is rapidly growing, and now includes large multinational corporations, global money managers, registered dealers, international money brokers, futures and options traders, and private speculators.

Where is the central location of the FX Market?

FX Trading is not centralized on an exchange, as with the stock and futures markets. The FX market is considered an Over the Counter (OTC) or ’Interbank’ market, due to the fact that transactions are conducted between two counterparts over the telephone or via an electronic network.

What is Foreign Exchange?

The Foreign Exchange market, also referred to as the "Forex" or "FX" market, is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily average turnover of approximately US$1.5 trillion. Foreign Exchange is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. The world’s currencies are on a floating exchange rate and are always traded in pairs, for example Euro/Dollar or Dollar/Yen.